Citigroup has revised down its 12 month price targets for bitcoin and ethereum, pointing to delays in United States crypto legislation that are dampening expectations for institutional inflows. The move reflects growing caution across financial markets as regulatory uncertainty continues to limit momentum in digital assets. Analysts say the absence of clear policy direction is reducing the likelihood of strong exchange traded fund driven demand, which had previously been expected to support prices through 2026 amid broader adoption of crypto within global financial systems.
The Wall Street bank now expects bitcoin to reach 112000 dollars over the next year, down from its earlier projection of 143000 dollars, while ethereum is forecast to hit 3175 dollars instead of the previous 4304 dollars. Strategists highlighted that progress on crypto market structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, with disagreements around stablecoin regulation and political divisions narrowing the window for meaningful reform. The failure to advance legislation is seen as a key factor limiting institutional confidence and delaying new capital flows into the sector.
Analysts also outlined a wide range of potential outcomes depending on macroeconomic conditions and investor demand. In a weaker economic scenario, bitcoin could fall to around 58000 dollars while ethereum could drop closer to 1200 dollars, reflecting sensitivity to tightening financial conditions and reduced risk appetite. On the upside, stronger participation from long term investors could push bitcoin as high as 165000 dollars and ethereum near 4488 dollars, though such gains would likely require both regulatory clarity and sustained market activity.
Ethereum in particular is expected to remain closely tied to network usage and activity levels, which have shown signs of weakness in recent months. However, ongoing developments in stablecoins and tokenization could support renewed interest in the network over time. Analysts note that as digital finance infrastructure expands, ethereum’s role in facilitating decentralized applications and financial transactions may become increasingly important, even as short term metrics remain under pressure.
The legislative outlook remains a central factor shaping market expectations. Political uncertainty ahead of upcoming elections has added further complexity, with divisions among lawmakers slowing progress on crypto related bills. Some proposals include stricter oversight measures and restrictions on financial interests linked to digital assets, which have become a point of debate among policymakers. These disagreements are reducing the likelihood of near term approval, leaving the industry without a clear regulatory framework.
Market participants say the lack of progress could extend the current phase of consolidation in crypto markets. Bitcoin is expected to trade within a defined range as investors await policy developments, with key levels around 70000 dollars acting as a psychological benchmark tied to earlier election driven momentum. In the absence of regulatory catalysts, price movements are likely to remain influenced by macroeconomic trends, liquidity conditions and shifts in investor sentiment across global markets.
Despite the near term uncertainty, digital assets continue to attract attention as part of broader financial transformation trends. Stablecoins, tokenized assets and blockchain based payment systems are gradually integrating into traditional finance, reinforcing the long term relevance of the sector. However, analysts caution that without supportive regulation, the pace of adoption may remain uneven, keeping markets sensitive to both political developments and economic conditions in the months ahead.
